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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still