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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd